Analytical prediction method of power system frequency deviation under uncertain power fluctuations

In modern power systems, the impact of random sources and loads on systems is increasing, resulting in threatened system frequency security. However, traditional methods are often not comprehensive modelling randomness, there no analytical method to assess response under uncertain fluctuations. Here, fluctuation a regarded as an interval quantity. An prediction deviation proposed. Through further deduction, allowable range premise secure can also be defined, which provides reference for security accident prevention systems. Numerical simulations with model East China Power Grid demonstrate that proposed delimit well, backstepping calculation ensure operation system.